Forecastıng Economıc Growth Rate :
Türsoy, Turgut, Prof. Dr.
Forecastıng Economıc Growth Rate : The Case of North Cyprus / Turgut Türsoy. - 2013.
While GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, it is unfortunately published quite late in North Cyprus. In order to make more accurate forecasting, an auto-aggressive moving average (ARMA) model was used in this study to forecast the real growth rates of the economy. The growth forecasting models that was developed is based on the Box-Jenkins approach which identifies the models, and was used to apply it to ex-ante forecasting. The results indicate that the forecasts relating to the ex-post period real growth rates, that the developed models gave, were reasonably accurate. Based on this result an attempt is made to forecast the ex-ante period real growth rates of North Cyprus
Near East University Article
Yakın Doğu Üniversitesi Makale
Forecasting
Economic Growth
ARMA Models
Model Selection
HD75
Forecastıng Economıc Growth Rate : The Case of North Cyprus / Turgut Türsoy. - 2013.
While GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, it is unfortunately published quite late in North Cyprus. In order to make more accurate forecasting, an auto-aggressive moving average (ARMA) model was used in this study to forecast the real growth rates of the economy. The growth forecasting models that was developed is based on the Box-Jenkins approach which identifies the models, and was used to apply it to ex-ante forecasting. The results indicate that the forecasts relating to the ex-post period real growth rates, that the developed models gave, were reasonably accurate. Based on this result an attempt is made to forecast the ex-ante period real growth rates of North Cyprus
Near East University Article
Yakın Doğu Üniversitesi Makale
Forecasting
Economic Growth
ARMA Models
Model Selection
HD75